One of the largest port complexes in the US has been shut down since Sunday morning after a barge accident almost knocked a high voltage tower into the Houston Ship Channel. Over thirty ships have been blocked by the shut down of the ship channel. An economic loss of almost $1 billion is estimated to result from the shutdown. The ship channel is not expected to open until at least Tuesday night.
Don’t believe that $1B figure. The trade it represents doesn’t disappear, like Cinderella’s coast at midnight; it just gets held back a few days. The Port of Houston is a business like, say, a restaurant where being closed briefly results in a complete and unrecoverable loss.
None of this is to say that there aren’t real losses involved; there are. But suggesting that the normal trade of the port simply vanishes if it’s not carried out on a specific date is just silliness, ginning up numbers for column inches in the Houston Chronicle.
Should have written, “The Port of Houston is NOT a business like, say, a restaurant. . . .”
I agree, the $1 billion figure seems odd. It appears in a statement made by the Coast Guard. Where they got it and/or why they are in the economic forecasting business isn’t clear to me.
“Where they got it and/or why they are in the economic forecasting business isn’t clear to me.”
They’re not so good at estimating deep water oil spill size, either.
More seriously, the $1B figure is a talking point based on the (yet another) talking point that estimates $320M or so moves through the port every day. It’s just another factoid of the sort that every official spokesman carries around on a laminated card in his/her wallet — nothing more.
Great post , thanks for sharing
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