Hurricane Lorenzo strengthened briefly to a Category 5 storm over the weekend, becoming the strongest hurricane on record so far north and east in the Atlantic Ocean.  On Saturday, we posted about the sinking of the tug-supply vessel Bourbon Rhode in the hurricane. Eleven of the fourteen crew are missing and presumed dead. Three of the crew were rescued following the sinking.

Lorenzo is unusual in that it strengthened so dramatically while so far east. Most hurricanes strengthen after moving farther west and remaining in warmer southern waters. According to weather.com, Lorenzo is by far the farthest east in the Atlantic Ocean any of the previous 35 Category 5 hurricanes that have occurred in records dating to the 1920s.

Having weakened to a still-dangerous Category 2 storm, Lorenzo is posing a threat to the Azores on Tuesday night into Wednesday. With winds of 105 mph (170 kph), Lorenzo is set to produce up to 4 inches (10 cm) of rain over much of the western Azores. Central Azores will be hit by 1 inch of rainfall, according to the National Hurricane Center.

The storm’s post-tropical remnant may end up in western Europe later in the week.

Can the hurricane’s unusual behavior be attributed to climate change? The answer is that based on a single storm, it is impossible to say. Recent research, however, suggests that it could be a factor. 

Marshall Shepherd, writing in Forbes notes that a 2013 study published in Geophysical Research Letters found that climate warming should result in more hurricanes affecting Europe. They attributed this conclusion to relatively high-resolution climate model simulations that project that Atlantic tropical sea surface temperatures would extend eastward in the Atlantic Ocean. A “dream team” of some of the world’s top hurricane experts published a 2014 study in Nature pointing to a poleward shift in where hurricanes were strengthening. Their reasoning was related to shifts in potential intensity and wind shear structure in the atmosphere. Though Hurricane Lorenzo is only one data point, it is certainly consistent with these findings.