Is the quarantine of the cruise ship Diamond Princess in Japan an effective way to control the spread of the virus known as COVID-19 , or is it facilitating the spread of the virus to other passengers and crew aboard the ship? Not enough is known about how the virus is spread for a definitive answer, nevertheless, the latter seems increasingly likely. One observer called the quarantine a “scary public health experiment.”

After initially saying that the ship was the safest place for the more than 400 American passengers, the US Embassy has reversed itself and announced plans to repatriate most American passengers from the ship.  

A letter from the embassy issued on Saturday said, “To fulfill our government’s responsibilities to U.S. citizens,” the U.S. government recommended “that U.S. citizens disembark and return to the United States.” Passengers who did not leave on the charter flight would not be able to return to the United States “for a period of time,” it added.

The government is chartering planes to carry the Americans to Travis Air Force Base in California and to Lackland Air Force Base in Texas. Not all Americans will be aboard the planes, however. Of the 218 infected passengers diagnosed so far, more than 25 Americans have tested positive for the virus and are being treated in Japanese hospitals. No one who tests positive for the virus or is showing symptoms will be allowed on the flights.

For those on the charter flights, the repatriation is not a “get out of quarantine free card.”  After spending more than a week quarantined in the relative comfort of a cruise ship, the Americans will be put under an additional two-week quarantine in less than resort-like accommodations on Air Force bases.

The passengers on the Diamond Princess have been mostly isolated in their staterooms with limited contact with other passengers. The crew has also been exposed to the virus, however, and has had no ability to remain isolated from those infected.  Michael Mina, an epidemiologist at Harvard University, commented:

The decision to keep the passengers & crew on the ship is no longer ethical and is wholly inappropriate. 10 crew are infected and crew cannot self quarantine, and room together. Clearly this has transmitted among them placing all at unacceptable risk. https://t.co/8GsI5ThDgg

— Michael Mina (@michaelmina_lab) February 11, 2020