Five days ago, the 56-meter-long sailing yacht Bayesian sank at anchor off Sicily in extreme weather. Fifteen people on board were rescued and seven died, including British tech tycoon Mike Lynch and his 18-year-old daughter, Hannah.
This morning Italian prosecutors said that they have opened an investigation into culpable shipwreck and manslaughter over the deaths in the yacht’s sinking. They stressed, however, that the investigation was in its initial stages and they were not currently looking at anyone specifically.
Contrary to initial reports that suggested the vessel may have sunk because of a waterspout, the authorities now say the most likely cause was a localized, powerful wind known as a downburst.
Many Unanswered Questions Why and How Bayesian Sank
Many questions remain unanswered as to why and how the Bayesian sank.
The yacht’s builder blames crew error. Giovanni Costantino, CEO of The Italian Sea Group, told Reuters that a series of “indescribable, unreasonable errors” by the crew led to the shipwreck. He also described the vessel as “unsinkable,” perhaps a poor word choice in discussing a vessel that recently sank.
For a more objective analysis, Peter Swanson recently posted on his newsletter, Loose Cannons, Yacht Design Experts Dissect How an ‘Act of God’ Sank Bayesian, featuring the perspectives of Chris Freer, Tad Roberts, and Roger Long.
Chris Freer observes “This is a one in a million tragedy but we should examine the facts and learn from them. Bayesian boasts the second highest mast in the world at 75 metres on a length of 56 meters. She has a lifting keel to enable her to get into shallow areas. Fully down it gives a draft of 9.83 meters and raised a draft of 4 meters. A sailing yacht has a keel to counter the heeling moment generated by the power of her sail plan. I’m sorry to say that size matters to a superyacht owner and naval architects are seduced into providing solutions.”
Tad Roberts comments “We’ve learned a few things from the divers in Italy and some comments from current and former crew. Divers have reported the boat is “intact,” presumably that means the rig is all there and in one piece. She is lying on the bottom at a 90-degree heel angle. Which is why the mast is not sticking up out of the water.
“A crew member has reported that the weather deteriorated and they (the crew) were on deck securing everything moveable (cushions, doors, etc.), and the boat was heeling about 20 degrees to starboard in the strong wind. Suddenly the heeling increased and they were in the water. This sounds like sudden massive downflooding. The door in the topsides aft is on the port side.
“The boat has a longish stub keel which contains the majority of her ballast, that stub keel also contains the large pivoting centreboard which is also ballasted, one report claims the board weighs approximately 45 tons. The board was normally only deployed when sailing, as it apparently makes noise which might bother someone trying to sleep. So the board was retracted that night. The boat is divided into numerous watertight compartments, the flooding of any one of which would not sink the boat….
“The head of the Italian Sea Group, parent of the builder Perini, has stated Bayesian had positive stability to 73 degrees with the board up and 88 degrees with the board down.
Roger Long replied, “Seventy-three degrees? There you go. The heeling arm would have again been above the righting arm at about 2/3 of that angle and, without sheets to ease or ability to steer, she would have been committed to capsizing around 50 degrees of heel.”
These views address the issue of the Bayesian‘s stability and the likelihood of downflooding. Nevertheless, exactly how the yacht flooded and sank so rapidly after being knocked down, remains unclear. A lot of attention is being paid to whether the stern door on the port side was open and whether the doors to the watertight compartments were properly secured.
As is the case with most tragedies, I suspect that no single event will be determined to be the cause of the sinking. Rather it seems likely that a series of mistakes in the design and operation of Bayesian will ultimately prove to have been the source of the fatal casualty. Time will tell.
If that is a correct Roger Long quote, I believe it. He knows more about sailing ship stability than most.
This Post was very helpful with the discussion on stability. The vessel’s system seems to have been largely experimental and problematic to operate. Calculating stability is not particularly difficult even before the days of computers. During my long sea career I must have performed thousands using the Stability Booklet supplied by the Builders for vessel currently sailing in. This might explain the appalling statements from Perini Nav. they to be suffering from guilt of conscience.
Naturally the Italian Authorities are conducting an investigation under Italian Law which I believe is based on Code Napoleon and they in turn have NOT made any statements. In view of the Perini Nav. highly prejudicial ones it is well that this vessel is British registered and any legal action should take place under British Common Maritime Law in Admiralty Court in London. The United Kingdom is no longer a member of the European Union and both the company owning and operating the vessel is British in addition to the vessel.
Good Watch
While all of the above is important we have to be aware of the decisions captains and skippers make. I saw on TV Captain Borner of “Sir Robert Baden Powell” the nearby Dutch traditional top`sl schooner saying “we saw the weather coming and prepared for it.
I myself have numerous times mainly in the Pacific watched squalls coming at us and water spouts form from the sky down not always connecting with the sea and sometimes have tried to avoid bad weather in my time with only a radar, weatherfax and a captains intuition.
Remember a few years back when “Marques” was overwhelmed in the Caribbean by a white squall she had her hatches open she was a shallow draft fruit schooner carrying a lofty barque rig she was never designed to carry. South Atlantic “Concordia” the Polish built barquentine was found to have had hatches open, again when a severe squall hit her when she was unprepared.
Any sailing vessel I have been in does several things either at sea or anchor, keep a good lookout 24/7 in poor weather a radar watch and hatches closed or readied to be battened down, at anchor all of the above and an anchor watch. In addition a walk through to check for anything loose doubling as a fire watch on the hour every hour. Our watertight doors would be regularly tested and shut when weather deteriorated of looked like it would be getting really bad.
The sailor of an earlier era would say compartment and survive I have stood in the open holds of several preserved sailing ships notably “Pommern” 4bk built 1905 and been amazed the only bulkhead being up forward the collision bulkhead and it being possible to see otherwise the full length of her hold and wonderful shape the open space is why so many old timers were lost even the “Titanic” may have survived if her bulkheads had been built up to her ceilings and not stopped short.
Chris