As the Russian invasion of Ukraine grinds to a bloody stalemate, the Russian navy is effectively blockading the northern Black Sea, cutting off maritime trade at Ukrainian ports, in what world leaders call a deliberate attack on the global food supply chain. 

Foreign Policy is reporting that Western governments are scrambling to find ways to break the blockade and ease the strains on the global commodities and agricultural markets rocked by the war. Ukraine, referred to as the “breadbasket of Europe,” feeds some 400 million people around the world and is a top grain supplier to dozens of developing countries, including politically unstable Middle Eastern and African countries that have seen food prices skyrocket since Russia first launched its invasion of Ukraine in late February. 

The clock is now ticking, as the first harvest of the season arrives in the next two months. A continued Russian blockade would prevent much of the tens of millions of tons of grain currently trapped at Ukraine’s ports from ever leaving.

“We need to get the ports open, operational. Otherwise, we are going to have catastrophe on top of catastrophe,” warned David Beasley, head of the U.N. World Food Program (WFP), this month. “It’s hard to believe how devastating this is really going to be on the poorest of the poor around the world.” 

Secretary of State Antony Blinken echoed the grim assessment last week in remarks at the United Nations, calling Russia’s blockade “a deliberate effort” to destabilize the world’s food supply.

“The food supply for millions of Ukrainians — and millions more around the world — has quite literally been held hostage by the Russian military,” he said.

Lithuania is initiating a “coalition of the willing” to help escort Ukrainian grain exports out of the Black Sea port of Odessa, Foreign Minister Gabrielius Landsbergis said on Tuesday.

“First of all, we are looking for diplomatic support and we will make efforts for a certain group of states to form to unblock Odessa according to the Ukrainians’ vision,” he said.

It’s unclear whether other NATO countries would sign on to this plan. (The Biden administration so far hasn’t weighed in.) Although most NATO countries have sent military supplies to Ukraine, they are wary of getting their forces directly involved in the conflict—even if just to escort cargo ships—lest it spark an incident that could provoke a NATO-Russia confrontation.

 Any such plan would also have to be approved by Turkey, a NATO ally that controls the gates of the Black Sea and the number of naval vessels that can pass through it, according to the 1936 Montreux Convention Regarding the Regime of the Straits. 

In addition to the naval blockade, there are reports that Russian forces have stolen 400,000 tons of Ukrainian wheat, as well as farm equipment, which was shipped back to Russian territory. Russian forces had also destroyed roads, railways, and rail stations needed to transport products for export, in addition to its blockade of seaports.

“As a result of Russia’s aggression, global food shortages are increasing and food prices are rising, exacerbating suffering and hardship for millions of vulnerable people across the globe,” Michael Carpenter, the U.S. ambassador to the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe said, noting a World Food Program estimate that the war could drive 47 million additional people worldwide “into acute food insecurity.”

Commercial satellite imagery appears to confirm some of Carpenter’s and the Ukrainian government’s allegations. Photos taken last week and published by Maxar Technologies showed Russian ships loading grain at Sevastopol, a port in Russian-occupied Crimea.