The verdict in the court-martial of 21-year-old Seaman Ryan Mays, accused of deliberately setting the fire that torched the billion-plus dollar amphibious assault ship USS Bonhomme Richard, is in the hands of a military judge. If convicted of arson and willful hazarding a vessel, Mays could face a sentence of life in prison.

Now that the trial has concluded, it is hard not to wonder whether the Navy’s case will go up in smoke. The nine-day trial featured a Navy case that was largely circumstantial and relied heavily on a single witness, whose story changed over time. The Navy also admitted to identifying and interviewing another suspect but being forced to stop looking into the sailor because he was discharged from the service.

There are also larger questions. How was a small fire on the Lower Vehicle Deck allowed to spread to engulf and ultimately destroy the amphibious assault ship? Why was the fire allowed to smolder for nearly two hours before spreading out of control? Why were Navy personnel on board the warship left without standard fire-fighting equipment and without clear orders on how to fight the fire?

What began as a small fire on the morning of July 12, 2020, turned into an inferno that burned in San Diego Bay for four full days. The fire gutted the amphibious assault ship and forced the Navy to scrap it, leaving taxpayers to foot a $1.2 billion dollar loss.

A Navy command investigation uncovered in exhaustive detail an astonishing array of failures — broken or missing fire hoses, poorly trained sailors, improperly stored hazardous material — that had primed the ship for a calamitous fire. Admiral Bill Lescher, the Navy’s No. 2 officer said, “The loss of this ship was completely preventable.”

Following the release of the investigation report, the Navy announced punishments for more than 20 officers and enlisted personnel for their actions and inaction in connection to the fire.

ProPublica reports that prior to the arson trial, a military judge recommended against going forward with it, bluntly calling out the lack of evidence and citing the findings of the Navy’s own command investigation.

Would the conviction of Seaman Mays be an act of justice or simply scapegoating? That is now up to Judge Capt. Derek Butler to decide. No timeline was provided as to how long Butler will take to deliberate on the case.

Thanks to Doug Bostrom for contributing to this post.