The Cost of Denial as Sea Levels Rising Faster Than at Any Time in the Last 4,000 Years

In 2012, the North Carolina state legislature believed it had found the solution to the rising sea levels along its Atlantic coast. They would simply ignore it. They passed a law requiring government planning boards to use predictions of sea level rise based on linear projections from 1900. The increase in sea levels due to climate change would not only be ignored, but it would also be made illegal for land use planning purposes.

Guess what? It didn’t work. In the last five years, at least 27 houses in North Carolina’s Outer Banks have collapsed due to coastal erosion, strong storms, and rising sea levels. 18 of these collapses occurred during 2024 and 2025.

And it only gets worse. In 2024, a group of federal, state, and local officials released a report on managing threatened oceanfront structures, which found that 750 of nearly 8,800 oceanfront structures in North Carolina are at risk of oceanfront erosion. The report acknowledges that the issue “will inevitably worsen considering sea level rise forecasts.” Notably, the report does not mention climate change at all in its 20 pages.

Of course, the problem is not limited to the North Carolina Outer Banks.  New research by scientists at Rutgers University has determined that sea levels, driven by climate change, are rising faster than at any point in the last 4,000 years.

The report says that while rising seas are a global issue, China faces a “double threat” as its largest and most economically important cities are particularly prone to sinking.

According to Yucheng Lin, who conducted the research, the study outlines two “major forces” that are driving the acceleration of sea level rise: thermal expansion and melting glaciers.

As climate change increases the temperature of the planet, oceans are absorbing more heat and expanding. At the same time, ice sheets in polar regions are melting at unprecedented rates, adding more water to the oceans.

Although the study focused on China, Lin argues the same lessons can be applied to major cities, including New York, Jakarta, and Manila, which are built on low-lying coastal plains and face similar risks.

Thanks to Alaric Bond for contributing to this post.

Comments

The Cost of Denial as Sea Levels Rising Faster Than at Any Time in the Last 4,000 Years — 2 Comments

  1. There are so many levels to this issue. The Outer Banks and other barrier islands are on sand that is constantly shifting. A cursory examination of a current map versus an older one might surprise the viewer. Putting structures up on shifting sand is a dumb idea made dumber by insurance companies willing to carry them and mitigating the cost among all insured. We pay for misguided minds building the homes of their dreams on shifting sands. What could go wrong does. I lived on a barrier island and moved for several reasons – incessant flooding being one of them. The Outer Banks also has some very rough weather and is the boneyard to a lot of wrecks because of it.

    Whatever else applies on the climate change issue is another chapter I am not able to intelligently address.

  2. The 1865 Viele Sanitary and topographic Map of New York shows a lot more Marshes, and made land,
    And, even much more made land has been added since 1865..All of this land has been developed, and built on since 1865..
    Storm skewers used to be full throat and wide open at their curb face, State, County, and local governments used to regularly dredge the silt and debris from their sewers..U.S. attorneys like Chris Christie went after state county and local governments for no-bid emergency sewer repairs..Today, these same agencies do practically nothing in the way of sewer repairs Throw in EPA mandated storm sewer strainers, and screens,
    Then, when there is any street flooding, keep the taxpayer’s Money ,hold a press conference and just call it global warming